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[ RETURN TO WATCH LIST ]MACRO & FINANCIAL • REAL GROWTH • STATCAN 12-10-0168-01
[FIG 16] • MACROECONOMIC DECOMPOSITION • STATCAN Table 12-10-0168-01 (Merchandise Trade Price and Volume Indexes)

Real vs. Price-Led Export Growth & Terms of Trade

“Is Canadian export growth driven by physical trade volume or global commodity price inflation?” — This tracker separates Canadian merchandise export growth into Fisher price and volume components.

OBSERVATION: Jul 2026
SOURCE RELEASE: 2026-09-03
RETRIEVED: 2026-09-20
[ STRICT MATHEMATICAL RULE • NON-ADDITIVE DECOMPOSITION ]: Fisher ideal indexes are strictly multiplicative (Vt = Pt × Qt). Do not use additive dollar decompositions (“ΔV = ΔP + ΔQ”). Cross-product terms make additive dollar values invalid. The tracker classifies chained Fisher price and volume growth rates into four economic regimes.
FISHER EXPORT PRICE INDEX
+14.5%
Current Index Level:154.6 (2017=100)
Year-over-year pricing power
PHYSICAL EXPORT VOLUME
+4.9%
Current Volume Index:106.8 (2017=100)
Actual physical metric tonnes shipped
NOMINAL EXPORT REVENUE
+20.1%
Active Growth Regime:Price-Amplified Volume Growth
Multiplicative result: (1+gP)×(1+gQ) - 1
CANADIAN TERMS OF TRADE
107.2
12-Month Net Shift:+5.2 pts
Export Price / Import Price ratio
EMPIRICAL COORDINATE MATRIX • 4-REGIME DECOMPOSITION

Physical Cargo Volume vs. Global Commodity Price Inflation

FOUR ECONOMIC REGIMES: This chart plots volume growth on the horizontal axis against price growth on the vertical axis. The top-left area shows Price Windfalls with higher prices but lower physical volume. The top-right area shows Real Expansion with expanding physical volume.
QUADRANT I: REAL EXPANSION (VOL+ / PRICE+)QUADRANT II: PRICE WINDFALL (VOL- / PRICE+)QUADRANT III: TWIN CONTRACTION (VOL- / PRICE-)QUADRANT IV: VOLUME BUFFER (VOL+ / PRICE-)VOLUME GROWTH YoY (%) →← CONTRACTION (-%)↑ PRICE INFLATION YoY (%)↓ PRICE DEFLATION (-%)0%+15%+30%-15%+15%-15%Agriculture & Food (V:+16%, P:+6%)Energy Products (V:+10%, P:+27%)Metal Ores & Minerals (V:-17%, P:+31%)Refined Metals (V:+19%, P:+27%)Chemicals & Plastics (V:-6%, P:+24%)Forestry & Lumber (V:-9%, P:+5%)Industrial Machinery (V:+2%, P:+2%)Electronics & Electrical (V:+4%, P:+4%)Automotive & Parts (V:-4%, P:+2%)Aerospace & Transport (V:+30%, P:+5%)Consumer Goods (V:+4%, P:+4%)
REAL EXPANSION
7 Sectors
Volume ≥ Price Growth
PRICE WINDFALL
2 Sectors
Price Up, Volume Flat/Down
VOLUME BUFFER
0 Sectors
Volume Up, Price Down
TWIN CONTRACTION
2 Sectors
Both Price & Volume Down
PRIMARY DATASET: STATCAN TABLE 12-10-0168-01 • MONTHLY TELEMETRY • FISHER CHAINED
SOURCE: Statistics Canada (Table 12-10-0168-01 (International Merchandise Trade, by Commodity, Price and Volume Indexes))
LAST UPDATED OBSERVATION: Jul 2026